While the WHO has officially announced that all conditions for El Niño are in place and that a shower of temperature records is to be expected, Aemet in Spain is taking it a step further: Temperatures will soon approach 50ºC.
The Spanish Weather Institute also forecasts historical records in Spain. When? Temperatures will start to rise from Friday, especially in northeastern Spain and the Balearic Islands. However, the highest values will be measured in Andalucia from Sunday. The heat there will last until Wednesday or Thursday.
At the end of June, Spain experienced the first heatwave of the summer. And since the arrival of July the extreme heat has not reduced. After the first heatwave of the summer, showers and storms arrived over parts of Spain, some even with hail. However, the showers did not alleviate the high temperatures that have plagued the country for several weeks.
Showers in the northeast
In the northeast of the peninsula, where the temperature had dropped significantly, it is starting to rise again to normal values for the time of year. In Catalonia and Aragon, it will be another 24 hours with heavy rain and storms. The same may also apply to areas in Castilla y León, La Rioja, Navarra and the Basque Country.
Within a week, the south of the country will again be most affected by the heat. With records for high temperatures in some cities such as Seville and Cordoba. While Aemet admits it is still early days, the meteorological agency does indicate that “temperatures could reach exceptionally high levels in about ten days”.
Record temperatures in Spain according to Aemet
From this week, the thermometers will reach between 34 and 38 degrees in the southwest of the country and may reach 40ºC again in the interior of Andalucia and Extremadura. The worst will then come next week when it will be unprecedentedly hot in some parts of Spain.
The department of Aemet in Andalucia has indicated that next Monday, July 10, the thermometers could leave historic traces throughout the region. In Seville, 46.7ºC is expected all day long, which would mark “the new city record”. And that is not the only area with “exceptionally high temperatures”, as the highest temperature is predicted in La Rambla (Córdoba) at 47.6ºC.
“Just the fact that the numerical models are predicting so much heat is remarkable, but there are still many days to go and we will have to see if it is confirmed,” Aemet said in a tweet.
Anticyclonic situation
As for the reasons for this new period of heat, Aemet points out that there is an anticyclonic situation, as a result of which the air will descend from the upper layers to the lower ones, compressing and heating the air even more. “There will be no clouds, so the warming will be greater. In addition, an air intake of African origin is expected that would exacerbate this whole situation.
WHO and El Nino
There is now a 90% chance that El Niño will occur in July. While El Niña caused some cooling in the past three years, we are now facing further warming. In addition, the phenomenon can also lead to extreme precipitation in South America and the US, while Australia and Southeast Asia will experience more drought. A small positive note: Europe is spared most of the effects of El Niño.
