A few weeks ago, many in Spain were still looking to the sky with hope, awaiting much-needed rain to combat the country’s severe drought. Rain has indeed fallen and alleviated the situation to some extent, but the drought has not been completely resolved.
Now that the heaviest showers are behind us, we are curious about what the weather has in store for us this summer. Will the summer of 2023 be as hot as last year? What awaits us? Will there be rain showers?
This week, the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) held a press conference to provide an outlook on the coming months. Two meteorologists shared their responses in the Spanish media.
One of them is Jorge Olcina, a climatology professor at the University of Alicante, who discussed the subject on ‘La Tarde’. Olcina emphasised from the outset that “this year will not be the same as last year,” referring to the abnormally high temperatures and numerous heat records broken in many places in Spain.
“It’s Going to Be an Unusual Summer…”
Furthermore, Olcina confirmed that in the Mediterranean and parts of the Cantabrian Sea, there will be less instability, and temperatures will not rise as high. However, AEMET predicts that this summer will be warm and possibly one of the warmest in the past 30 years.
Moreover, we can anticipate a significant amount of stormy weather. According to Olcina, there will be an increase in thunderstorms. He emphasised the likelihood of high temperatures combined with afternoon thunderstorms.
“It seems that this summer will be warm, which is not surprising given the trend of hot summers since 2010, with the possibility of thunderstorms. Experiencing a normal or even cool summer is rare,” said the climatologist.
Climate Changes
Olcina recalled the intense storm of June 2019, which developed explosively and was accompanied by strong winds. He compared this storm to storm Óscar, which recently passed. However, the climatologist lamented the changes that have occurred since 2010, affecting the climate. “Warmer atmospheres agitate air masses and cause sudden weather changes,” he explained.
In summary, the professor predicts a summer that will be warmer than average with the possibility of severe thunderstorms in the afternoon.
“Drastic Weather Change”
The second expert who shared his view on the summer forecasts is Roberto Brasero, a meteorologist and weatherman for Antena3. He announced a drastic change in the weather in the short term: “It seems that summer is closer than we thought.”
Summer is just around the corner, and the temperatures expected in the coming days also indicate so. On his Twitter account, Brasero referred to the forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for June, July, and August in Europe. These forecasts give a more than 70% chance of higher temperatures in Spain compared to the quarterly average, suggesting a hot summer ahead.
Predictions for the Summer of 2023
Although summer officially starts on June 21, the “climatic summer” is already being felt. This covers the entire quarter of June, July, and August, during which we can expect various forecasts. Brasero firmly stated his point of view: “It seems that summer is closer than expected. Next week, less rain, and the following week, even less. With more stability, higher temperatures will prevail. Summer will be in full swing by mid-month.”
An Unusual Situation for This Season
According to the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), we should prepare for a summer of 2023 that will be warmer than usual throughout Spain, both on the mainland and the islands. Furthermore, the chance of it being warmer than normal is estimated to be between 50% and 70%, particularly on the islands. On the other hand, the likelihood of a cooler summer than usual is only 10% to 20%.
Rubén del Campo, the spokesperson for AEMET, stated, “Summer looks very warm and may rank among the five, six, or seven warmest summers in the last 30 years. Although it probably won’t be warmer than last year, which had to deal with 41 days of a heatwave, making it an extraordinary year.”
Rainfall and Drought Problems
Despite forecasts of “abundant rainfall” during the summer of 2023, except the Cantabrian Mountains and the Canary Islands where there is no clear trend, this rainfall will not be enough to solve the long-standing drought problems. While the precipitation will moisten the soil and provide some relief to the ecosystems, the overall drought situation will persist.
Jorge Rey’s Unique Predictions
Jorge Rey, known for his unique (non-scientific) method of weather prediction, recently analysed the behaviour of flying insects as indicators of the summer weather in Spain. Although his models lack a scientific basis, they have often proven effective. Rey predicted a chance of a cyclone in June, with improving weather conditions in July and August, expecting hotter and wetter conditions than usual.
With thousands of followers on his social networks, Rey accurately anticipated the successive storms that have occurred so far in 2023. He correctly predicted the sudden weather changes in January and February and actively forecasted the wide variation in temperatures in March.
Rey’s traditional method of weather forecasting is based on observations of atmospheric conditions during the first 12 days of January, which correspond to the 12 months of the year. Moreover, some cultures use the cabañuelas method in reverse, starting from January 13 to 24.
Rain in the Coming Days
In the short term, Spain can expect the arrival of another DANA depression, bringing widespread storms and precipitation, particularly in the northern half of the country. However, different regions will experience varying temperatures.
El Niño Phenomenon
AEMET has also issued a warning regarding the impact of the El Niño meteorological phenomenon on countries near the equator, including Spain. El Niño is expected to cause extreme temperatures globally and may potentially break records. Consequently, experts predict that this summer will be particularly hot in Spain, accompanied by more frequent storms than usual.
As we eagerly await the summer, we must prepare for the potential hot temperatures, thunderstorms, and the ongoing challenges posed by drought conditions.
