Lorraine Williamson
Spain is heading into another spell of very high and persistent temperatures, with AEMET warning that the most intense conditions could arrive from Sunday and last through much of next week in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands.
The state weather agency says a ridge of high pressure over Spain, together with a DANA positioned to the west of the Iberian Peninsula, will help generate and spread a very dry and warm air mass across much of the country. AEMET says the episode is expected to become more significant from Sunday, especially in inland river valleys and low-lying areas, with very warm nights also forecast in many places.
Heat builds from Friday
Temperatures are expected to rise between Friday and Saturday, with the sharpest increases likely in parts of the northern third of the peninsula. Western Galicia could reach 36–39ºC by Saturday, while the south-western quadrant may see 38–40ºC.
AEMET also expects 36–38ºC in the southern plateau, the Ebro valley and depressions in the north-east. These are not isolated hot afternoons, but part of a wider build-up towards a more persistent episode.
Sunday and Monday could bring the peak
The highest point of the episode is currently expected between Sunday and Monday, although AEMET says there is still uncertainty over the exact extent and duration because it depends partly on the position of the DANA.
By then, 36–38ºC could be widespread across much of mainland Spain and the interior of the Balearic Islands. Temperatures of 38–40ºC are expected in the Miño and Ebro valleys, north-eastern depressions and parts of the south-west, while 40–42ºC could be reached in parts of the Tajo, Guadiana and Guadalquivir valleys.
AEMET has not ruled out the episode meeting the criteria for a heatwave between Sunday and Tuesday. Even if it is not formally classified as one, the agency says the level of danger will be important in many areas.
Fire danger expected to rise sharply
The heat will not only be a health concern. AEMET says the level of fire danger is expected to increase generally to very high values, while the start of next week could also bring afternoon storms with little rainfall in mountain areas.
Those dry storms can be particularly problematic because lightning, wind and very little rain can all increase the risk of fire starts or rapid spread. Protección Civil has also warned that high temperatures require maximum caution to prevent forest fires, reminding the public not to throw cigarettes, rubbish or glass bottles in rural areas, not to light fires or barbecues in woodland or nearby land, and to call 112 immediately if a fire is spotted.
Health risk is not the same everywhere
Spain now uses a health-based heat alert system through the Ministry of Health’s Meteosalud map. The system divides the country into 182 health-weather zones and gives risk levels based on the expected impact of heat on health, rather than only on the temperature itself.
That means a temperature that is dangerous in one area may not carry the same health risk in another, depending on local climate, persistence and population vulnerability. The Ministry of Health says its 2026 heat plan is designed to reduce illness and mortality linked to excessive temperatures, with particular attention to older people, very young children, pregnant women, people with chronic illness and those living alone or in poorly cooled homes.
Check local alerts before making plans
Anyone planning outdoor work, sport, travel, hiking, festivals or long journeys over the next few days should check the latest AEMET warnings and local authority advice before setting off.
The hottest hours will be the most difficult for outdoor activity, especially from Sunday onwards. Drinking water regularly, avoiding prolonged exertion in the middle of the day, keeping homes as cool as possible and checking on vulnerable relatives or neighbours are simple steps that can make a difference.
AEMET says temperatures may begin to fall gradually from Wednesday, although values are still expected to remain high in many areas for much of next week.