MADRID – After the polls closed, the first polls of the national elections were released on Sunday evening. This given a unanimous victory for the Partido Popular (PP), but unclear is a possible coalition with Vox.
The big question therefore remains whether the PP can govern on its own or will be dependent on a coalition partner, such as the far-right party Vox. This scenario could turn the political landscape upside down for the next four years and could even lead to new elections. Newtral.es lists the different polls.
GAD 3 predictions
According to the GAD 3 poll for Telecinco, the PP could win the election with 150 seats. Vox could win 31 seats, which could mean a combined majority of 181 seats. The PSOE could get 112 seats and Sumar 27, which is not enough for a majority.
Sigma Dos poll
Sigma Dos’ poll for RTVE-FORTA gives the PP between 145 and 150 seats, and Vox between 24 and 27. This would give a total of 169 to 177 seats for both parties. The PSOE could get between 113 and 118 seats and Sumar between 28 and 31.
Moreover, according to Sigma Dos, ERC and JuntsxCat could get nine seats, EH Bildu could get six seats and the PNV five. CUP could get one seat, while BNG could fluctuate between one and two seats. CC could get one seat and Teruel Existe could get one seat or possibly get no representation in Congress at all.
Gesop’s predictions
Gesop’s poll for Prensa Ibérica places the PP on a win with between 133 and 137 seats. Vox could get between 34 and 38 seats, so that both parties might just fall short of an absolute majority. The PSOE could land between 109 and 113 seats, and Sumar could potentially become the third largest party with between 36 and 40 seats.
In addition, ERC could get between nine and 10 seats, JuntsxCat between seven and eight, and other parties would together account for between 14 and 19 seats in the lower house.
Conclusion
While the polls are unanimously pointing to a victory for the PP, the political landscape is still highly uncertain regarding coalition formation and the PP’s ability to govern alone. It will be a long night of tension for the largest party before the final result puts an end to this uncertainty. The homepage of Elpais.es gives the real time results of the counted votes.
Also read: Is the PSOE moving closer to the PP with the elections looming?
