Else Beekman
The recent announcement by US President Donald Trump to impose substantial tariffs on imported goods has raised alarms among Spain’s top corporations. Companies listed on the IBEX 35 index are now assessing the potential repercussions on their operations and growth prospects.
The Chamber of Commerce of Spain estimates tariffs could affect €22 billion in trade, with potential losses of €4.3 billion—0.27% of Spain’s GDP.
For the EU as a whole, exports to the US represent 4.6% of GDP. In the case of Spain this number is 2.3%. General tariffs of 25% will mean losses of up to €4.3 billion, or 0.27% of GDP in the most unfavourable scenario for Spain.
In an article in El Economista, journalist José Carlos Cuevas points out that it is also important to consider that Trump’s tariffs may affect countries that are the destination of Spanish exports. Consequently, damage to their economies could lead to induced damage to the Spanish economy.
Infrastructure giants on alert
Acciona faces uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions and Trump’s policies. The company expects tariffs to penalise exports to the US.
Sacyr warns that Trump’s return signals a possible global tariff war with unpredictable consequences. Depending on energy prices and tariff effects, the Federal Reserve may adjust interest rates further in 2025.
Ferrovial tries to mitigate risks through local sourcing
Ferrovial’s CEO, Ignacio Madridejos, downplays the impact of US tariffs on its American operations due to local suppliers. However, tariffs on Canada, where Ferrovial owns the 407-ETR highway, could lower GDP and traffic.
Pharmaceutical sector concerns
Grifols warns that protectionist measures may hurt sales, disrupt supply chains, increase costs, and reduce competitiveness.
Naturgy fears environmental policy implications
Naturgy highlights Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement under ‘Putting America First In International Environmental Agreements.’
Defence industry vigilance
Indra, focused on defence, expects major shifts in foreign and economic policies. US tariffs on various countries heighten trade tensions. The company closely monitors the situation to adapt.
Tourism and transport under pressure
Aena and IAG, reliant on tourism, anticipate potential risks. Aena notes uncertainty from US tariff policy, while IAG points to US relations with Russia and China as factors that may lead to inconsistent policies.
Geopolitical concerns in telecommunications
Cellnex raises concerns over US-China tensions. CEO Marco Patuano criticises a zero-sum mindset, advocating collaboration over competition. Tariffs exemplify the risks of this approach.
Financial uncertainty in banking sector
BBVA and CaixaBank highlight the uncertainty under Trump’s administration. BBVA warns that tariffs and stricter immigration could raise inflation and slow growth. CaixaBank notes investor concerns over higher inflation. Santander remains cautious about policy impacts, while Bankinter points out that major US banks left the ‘Net Zero Banking Alliance’ in 2025.
BBVA also warns that, while Spain’s exposure to the US market is lower than other European nations, reduced EU-US trade could significantly impact Spanish exports. Nearly 28,000 companies, mainly in machinery, metallurgy, chemicals, and agri-food, may suffer.
Fluidra expects potential impact on supply chains
Fluidra, a pool and wellness leader, expects tariffs on Mexico to cost €50 million. Though it produces in both countries, many suppliers operate in Mexico, increasing exposure to tariff risks.
Luxury goods facing tariff challenges
Puig, a major perfume brand, may need to reassess its EBITDA margin due to unexpected tariffs. The company will not shift perfume production to the US but may adjust other categories.
Almirall: Healthcare Policy Shifts
Almirall, outside the IBEX, warns that US healthcare policy changes could affect business. However, with only 5.6% of its 2024 revenue from the US, the impact may be limited. A strong dollar could help offset losses.
Major concer in the agri-food sector
The Spanish agri-food sector, heavily reliant on US exports, faces significant risks. Olive oil exports could drop by over 5%. Previous economic crises and rising energy costs make these tariffs especially damaging.
Spain’s steel and aluminium trade at risk
Spain is the tenth-largest exporter of steel to the US. According to US public administration data, Spain exported 290,000 tonnes of steel to the United States in the past eleven months, amounting to a total value of $263 million (€255 million). Despite a 4% increase in US steel imports overall, Spanish steel exports have declined by 2.2% compared to the previous year. In the aluminium sector, Spain ranks 28th in exports to the US, having shipped 19,664 tonnes in 2024, valued at $132.93 million (€128.9 million).
Strategies to navigate the tariff challenge
According to the Chamber of Commerce of Spain, businesses should adopt these strategies:
- Cash flow management – Optimise financial resources and liquidity.
- Market diversification – Reduce dependence on the US, expand into Asia and Latin America.
- Cost efficiency – Implement cost-saving measures to offset tariffs.
- Financial restructuring – Negotiate with creditors to sustain operations.
- Strategic alliances – Partner with local US firms to bypass tariffs.
Also read: Spain faces major setback for exports due to Trump´s proposed tariffs