MADRID – “Rain, rain and more rain” and that for June in Spain. Is that possible? Yes, according to the Spanish weather service Aemet. How? Thanks to a blocking anticyclone over Northern Europe.
This seemed impossible a few weeks ago amid disaster scenarios about the drought that plagued Spain – and still does. But that’s changing now the weather forecasts for June are starting to take shape. It still sounds unbelievable, but according to Aemet, the models are clear: “positive anomaly in precipitation for this week and the rest of June”. That means a lot of rain in the run-up to summer.
What exactly is going on?
For months, a huge blocking anticyclone hung over the Iberian Peninsula, providing a stable atmosphere. Moreover, all depressions that could have come to Spain were averted. However, this anticyclone is now over the British Isles and, in addition to the UK and Ireland, will also affect the Benelux, Denmark, the Atlantic coast of Norway, much of northern France and extensive regions of Germany. The impacts on those areas are exactly the same as those previously experienced by Spain and Portugal: Depressions are not spreading to the northern European mainland (and according to Aemet, they won’t be in the coming weeks). Consequently, that means dry weather there and instable weather here in the south of Europe.
Also read: Driest spring ever in Spain despite torrential rain in the east
The placement of the anticyclone over the British Isles has created an atmospheric corridor that will bring a succession of DANAs (Isolated High Level Depressions) to the Iberian Peninsula until close to the month of July.
What does “positive precipitation anomaly” mean?
Rain! That’s what “positive anomaly in precipitation” means. While Northern Europe has dry weeks ahead, the whole of Spain will receive more rain than usual in the coming weeks. In Particular, the northwestern and southeastern parts of the peninsula will experience a particularly intense anomaly.
Will the coming rain help ease the drought?
Will this help alleviate the drought in Spain? According to Aemet, the answer to this question is clearly yes. In the current state of the country, every drop is welcome. The drought has had a major impact on water resources and numerous crops in the country. Therefore, any amount of water will be more than welcome. Especially since the water will come before the heaviest summer months, during which not a drop usually falls. Although it is unfortunately already too late for crops such as olives.
Can the dryness be reset?
Another question is whether these trends (if they occur) can reset the drought. After almost ten years in which less water was available each year than the historical average, Spain will arrive exhausted in 2023. The rainfall in the coming weeks will therefore have to be very intense to banish the meteorological drought. That would be a very unusual situation, but maybe nature, water resources and farmers are finally lucky?
Also read: Unprecedented drought might be the costliest in recorded history
