Lorraine Williamson
THE HAGUE – Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez found himself increasingly isolated on the final day of the NATO summit, as Sánchez resists NATO defence demand for member states to raise military spending to 5% of GDP. Despite pressure from President Trump and key European allies, he remained firm in his opposition to what he called an excessive and socially irresponsible target.
Led by U.S. President Donald Trump and supported by major European powers including Germany, France, Italy, and the UK’s Keir Starmer, the 5% benchmark has become a flashpoint in NATO’s evolving defence strategy. Only Belgium and Slovenia backed Spain’s resistance to the target.
Trump, speaking en route to the summit, publicly criticised Spain’s low defence budget, labelling the country “a problem” within the alliance. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte didn’t respond directly but privately praised Trump’s leadership on Iran and global security—remarks later shared by the White House. This cordial alignment stands in sharp contrast to Sánchez’s stance, which he insists is about “spending smarter, not just spending more.”
Spain proposes its own path
Spain currently spends just 1.28% of GDP on defence. Sánchez is proposing to raise that to 2.1% by 2030—still a significant increase, but far short of NATO’s new goal. He argues that hitting 5% would mean diverting more than €50 billion annually, much of it destined for U.S. weapons systems. In a time of economic strain and social priorities, he calls such a demand “neither socially sustainable nor strategically necessary.”
Though the proposal lacks public costings or technical detail—something allies have flagged as a concern—Sánchez has managed to secure a formal agreement with NATO Secretary-General Rutte. Spain will endorse the summit’s final declaration, but with an explicit exemption from the 5% obligation.
Domestic divide and diplomatic friction
Sánchez’s position enjoys limited political backing at home. His minority government is reliant on progressive partners who oppose any substantial rise in military spending. Public opinion appears similarly cautious: recent surveys show just 43% of Spaniards support paying higher taxes for defence, with far greater support for investment in health, housing and education.
Across NATO, however, frustrations are building. Sweden and Denmark have expressed concern that Spain’s exception could set a precedent. Many member states are now pushing beyond 3.5%, and see the Spanish proposal as falling short of what is needed to strengthen the alliance’s deterrence capacity—particularly in the face of continued aggression from Russia.
A longstanding reluctance
Spain’s hesitation over military expansion has deep historical roots. After joining NATO in 1982, following the end of Franco’s dictatorship, Madrid has consistently favoured a minimalist approach to defence budgets. For much of the public, NATO membership symbolised democratic integration—not militarisation.
Sánchez’s government has argued that European NATO members already outspend Russia collectively, even without U.S. support. Imposing an arbitrary 5% goal, they say, ignores geopolitical nuance and could lead to inefficient, politically costly spending.
A compromise—for now
Despite pressure from both Washington and Brussels, Sánchez has held the line. His refusal to accept the 5% target has not prevented Spain from signing the final summit communiqué, thanks to a carefully negotiated caveat. The document avoids legally binding targets and allows member states to interpret the commitment in their own national context.
Whether this diplomatic finesse will hold in the long term remains uncertain. Trump’s re-election has strengthened the hawkish wing of the alliance, while Starmer’s Labour government in the UK is signalling a more assertive foreign policy stance. Spain’s flexible approach could come under renewed scrutiny if tensions with Russia or instability in the Middle East deepen.
Can Spain sustain its exception?
Sánchez’s defiance at The Hague may have secured short-term flexibility, but the political costs could rise. As NATO pivots towards greater militarisation, Spain’s gamble on restraint and strategic autonomy could test both alliance cohesion and domestic support. The real question now is: how long can Spain walk this tightrope?