With only three days left until the end of 2023, a year that has been globally recognized as the warmest since the beginning of weather records, Spain is experiencing a period of stable and sunny weather.
Christmas was marked by nighttime frost in the interior and persistent fog. However, in some regions, the last days of the year have brought precipitation. The question now arises: What kind of weather can we expect during New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, and what do the first days of 2024 hold for us?
New Year’s Eve: stable weather, except in the North
According to the Spanish Meteorological Service (AEMET), which provides forecasts until January 21, New Year’s Eve will experience stable weather in most parts of Spain. Exceptions include Galicia, the Cantabrian regions, and the northwest of Castile and León, where the year will end with rainfall.
#AEMETBlog Predicción para las próximas tres semanas del 1 de enero al 21 de enero de 2024
Las semana del 1 al 7 se caracterizará por el paso de sistemas frontales que dejarán cielos nubosos en buena parte de la Península y Baleareshttps://t.co/0FPVaHLuou pic.twitter.com/pvexTLd7Ip
— AEMET (@AEMET_Esp) December 29, 2023
New Year’s day: two possible scenarios
For New Year’s Day, there are two possible scenarios regarding precipitation. The most likely forecast is the arrival of a front to the peninsula, primarily bringing rain to Galicia and the nearby areas of Asturias and Castile and León. However, it is not ruled out that the front could also reach other parts of the western and central peninsula.
The first days of 2024: uncertain weather
The weather forecast for the first days of 2024 remains uncertain. Currently, the arrival of Atlantic fronts seems most probable, which would bring rain, particularly to Galicia, the Cantabrian communities, Castile and León, and possibly parts of the central and Extremadura regions.
Stabler weather on the Mediterranean coast and the Balearics
If this scenario is confirmed, the weather will be more stable on the Mediterranean coast and the Balearic Islands. Temperatures will generally rise: in the afternoon, it is likely to be around 18°C to 20°C on the Cantabrian coast and more than 20°C in the Mediterranean area, reducing the frequency of frost.
Uncertainty persists for January 5
For Friday, January 5, the eve of Three Kings’ Day, ongoing instability appears likely, with uncertainty about the affected areas. The most likely scenario is rainfall in the northwestern third of the peninsula, but rain showers for other parts of the peninsula and the Balearic Islands are not ruled out.
With the predicted arrival of Atlantic fronts, people in Spain can prepare for a more variable and possibly wetter meteorological scenario, especially in the north and central parts of the country, while milder conditions are expected in the south and along the Mediterranean coast.
AEMET meteorologist Juan Jesús González Alemán also points out the possibility of a sudden warming of the stratosphere and a potential split in the polar vortex. Such a split could have a significant impact on weather patterns in the new year. If the polar vortex were to break, warm air could rapidly penetrate the polar stratosphere, leading to extreme weather conditions and significant societal impact. However, uncertainty about the occurrence of this phenomenon remains high, making it too early to determine its potential consequences.
Aumentan las probabilidades de un gran calentamiento súbito estratosférico:
Observen cómo lo prevé el modelo americano GFS.
Es un bonito fenómeno donde el vórtice polar estratosférico (amarillo) es perturbado y se divide en dos. pic.twitter.com/BtljjFtvhb
— Dr. J. J. González Alemán (@glezjuanje) December 27, 2023
Another meteorologist, Mario Picazo, suggests that previous cold waves have been influenced by similar events. , causing the polar jet stream to fluctuate and allowing cold air masses to descend to lower latitudes. Confirmation of these predictions requires day-to-day monitoring.
Weather in early January according to Meteored
The weekend is expected to be predominantly stable, with morning mist and periods of high clouds. On New Year’s Eve, a front may bring rain to the northwest of the peninsula. On New Year’s Day, scattered and irregular rain may occur in various regions. The amount of rain is not expected to be significant, with Galicia receiving the most rainfall. Snowfall is also not anticipated, except for a few centimeters in the Cantabrian region and the Pyrenees. Overall, the weather across the country is expected to be relatively mild.
Weather in January according to weatherman Jorge Rey
In his latest video, young weather seer Jorge Rey warns of weather changes on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. Rey, who describes himself as ‘your weatherman,’ shares his weather updates on YouTube using proverbs and relies on observing nature, particularly the behavior of ants, to make his predictions. Based on this, he predicts that the end of the high-pressure area will bring icy weather in the coming week, with instability and potential rain and snow by the end of the week. Rey suggests that the mist and frost on Saturday, December 30, and Sunday, December 31, are indicators of upcoming rain and snow. In conclusion, Rey believes that rain will ultimately come.