Else Beekman
The Spanish Christmas Lottery, famously known as ‘El Gordo’, is much more than a game of chance. For many Spaniards, it’s a deeply ingrained tradition, a spark of hope in the festive season. But as Sergio Castro, a veteran mathematics professor and educational content creator, explains, there are a few misconceptions that persist year after year.
From futile predictions to misunderstood odds, Castro sheds light on the five key mistakes many make when playing the Christmas lottery, held annually on December 22nd.
1. Believing in predictions
Every December, newspapers and social media flood with claims from clairvoyants and even artificial intelligence models predicting the winning numbers for El Gordo. According to Castro, these predictions are nothing more than wishful thinking. “It’s mathematically impossible to predict the winning number,” he says. “The probability of any given number winning is always 1 in 100,000. Each draw is independent, like rolling a dice—it has no memory.”
2. Trusting in luck and superstitions
From buying tickets at the famed Doña Manolita lottery shop in Madrid to playing the same number every year, superstition often drives lottery habits. While Doña Manolita is renowned for its winners, Castro points out that this is a function of volume, not luck. “They sell more tickets than anywhere else, so naturally, they distribute more winning numbers.” As for playing the same number annually? “It doesn’t increase your odds—it’s just tradition.”
3. Thinking more tickets means profit
It’s tempting to believe that buying more tickets increases your chances of a big win—and it does, to a point. But Castro explains that this doesn’t make playing profitable. The odds of losing everything remain high. “The mathematical expectation of the Christmas lottery is always negative. The more you play, the more likely you are to lose money in the long run.”
He illustrates this with a practical example: if you bought tickets for half of all possible numbers, you would spend €1 million for a return that would still likely result in a net loss after taxes.
4. Misunderstanding probabilities
Many players overestimate their chances of success. While there are 15,304 prizes in El Gordo, the odds of winning more than you play are low. Castro calculates that only 5.3% of numbers receive a prize larger than the ticket cost. Conversely, 84.7% of players lose their entire investment.
“The reality is harsh,” says Castro. “For every 20 tickets purchased, 17 will lose everything.”
5. Believing there’s a winning strategy
The dream of winning leads some to look for strategies, but Castro insists there’s no guaranteed method to beat the system. “You’re buying a chance—not certainty,” he says. While mathematicians historically analysed games of chance to create favourable odds, lottery games like El Gordo remain fundamentally unfavourable.
The takeaway: It’s all about the tradition
Ultimately, Castro believes that the magic of El Gordo lies not in winning, but in the joy of participating. “For €20, you buy a dream, a moment of hope shared with family and friends,” he concludes. “But if you’re expecting to make money, the math just isn’t on your side.”
So, as millions of Spaniards prepare for December 22nd, Castro’s advice is clear: enjoy the tradition, but leave the superstitions at the door. Winning El Gordo is pure luck, and perhaps, that’s what makes it so special.
Facts and myths about El Gordo
Facts
- The Spanish Christmas Lottery is the largest lottery in the world in terms of prize money, with over €2.5 billion distributed annually.
- Each ticket costs €200, but most players buy a décimo, a tenth of a ticket, for €20.
- The odds of winning the grand prize, El Gordo, are 1 in 100,000—significantly better than most international lotteries.
- Even if you don’t win El Gordo, there are thousands of smaller prizes, including the pedrea (a “shower” of minor prizes) and reintegros that refund your ticket cost.
Myths
- “Buying from lucky vendors increases your chances.” While some lottery shops like Doña Manolita are famous for selling winning tickets, this is purely due to the high volume of sales.
- “Avoid numbers that won in previous years.” Each draw is independent, and past results have no influence on future outcomes.
- “There’s a strategy to improve your chances.” While you can buy more tickets to increase your odds, no method guarantees success—winning is entirely down to luck.
- “Playing the same number every year boosts your chances.” This is a tradition for many, but it doesn’t statistically improve your likelihood of winning.
The Christmas Lottery and the boys of San Ildefonso
The Spanish Christmas Lottery is the oldest running lottery in the world, dating back to 1812. The event is known for its elaborate ceremony where schoolchildren from Madrid’s San Ildefonso convent sing out the winning numbers and corresponding prizes. The hauntingly melodic chants have become synonymous with the festive season, drawing millions of viewers across Spain.
El Gordo, or “The Fat One,” is the grand prize, awarding €4 million per full ticket (or €400,000 per décimo, a tenth of a ticket). In total, the lottery distributes over €2.5 billion in prizes. The draw includes thousands of smaller awards, from significant jackpots to the modest ‘reintegro’, where players get their ticket price refunded. Despite the slim odds, the excitement of participating—and the hope of sharing a windfall with friends and family—makes El Gordo a beloved part of Spain’s Christmas tradition.
Also read: El Gordo de Navidad 2024: Spain’s Christmas lottery explained