Else Beekman
Spain’s political spectrum continues to evolve. While the Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) struggles to regain its footing, the far-right Vox party emerges as a growing force, bringing the right-wing bloc closer to a parliamentary majority.
The latest 40dB. poll is revealing significant shifts that could reshape the country’s power dynamics. Here’s a breakdown of the key insights from this political barometer.
PSOE struggles amid stagnation
The PSOE, led by Pedro Sánchez, finds itself at a critical juncture. According to the poll, the party’s vote share has dipped to 29.5%, marking its worst performance since the July 2023 general elections. Despite only losing 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, this decline highlights a broader trend of voter dissatisfaction.
In contrast, the main opposition, the People’s Party (PP), led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, appears unable to capitalise on PSOE’s struggles. With 33% of the projected vote, the PP’s numbers remain almost unchanged, reflecting a failure to widen its lead over the Socialists significantly. The gap between the two major parties has narrowed to just 3.5 percentage points, down from over five in April 2023.
Vox gains momentum
Vox, Spain’s far-right party, continues its upward trajectory. With an estimated 13.8% of the vote, the party has gained 1.5 percentage points since the general elections and 0.7 points compared to December. This growth is fuelled partly by disillusioned voters from smaller parties, such as Se Acabó La Fiesta, whose support has dwindled from nearly 5% to 2.4%.
What’s more, Vox retains an exceptionally loyal voter base, with 82.8% of its supporters sticking with the party. In comparison, the PP retains 76.9% of its voters, with a significant 10.5% defecting to Vox. These dynamics underscore the “natural” voter flow between the two right-wing parties, as noted by political analyst Belén Barreiro.
Podemos and Sumar: a fragmented left
On the left, Podemos has shown the most notable growth, rising to 4% after months of struggling to meet the 3% threshold for parliamentary representation. This resurgence follows its decision to separate from the broader Sumar coalition, which has seen its own support decline. Sumar now stands at 5.1%, a steep drop from its 12% in the last elections.
The fragmentation of the left continues to weaken its collective strength. Together, PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos command 38.6% of the vote, a significant five-point drop from their combined performance in the general elections.
Regional and demographic insights
The poll also reveals distinct regional and demographic patterns:
- Andalucia: The PP leads with 26.4%, widening its gap over the PSOE.
- Catalonia and Galicia: PSOE maintains strongholds with 23.2% and 28.9%, respectively.
- Valencian Community: Abstention is the most popular choice at 30.2%, reflecting growing voter apathy.
Among voters under 24, political disaffection is strikingly high, with 33.8% opting for abstention or blank votes. Vox, however, has emerged as the second choice for this age group, securing 20.7%, just behind PSOE at 18.2%.
The 40dB. poll highlights a shifting landscape where the right-wing bloc, comprising the PP and Vox, edges closer to a parliamentary majority with 46.8% of the vote. Including smaller right-leaning parties, this figure rises to 49.2%.
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