MADRID – A CIS poll gives the election victory to the Partido Popular (PP), but the left could win an absolute majority that would allow the formation of a government.
The PP could win the general election with 31.4% of the vote and a range of 122-140 seats, almost on par with the PSOE, which could receive 31.2% of the vote and 115-135 deputies, according to the CIS. However, the absolute majority that would allow forming a government could be in the hands of the left, as Sumar would far outnumber Vox, with 16.4% of the vote, 43-50 deputies, compared to 10.6% of the votes and 21-29 seats for the formation of the extreme right.
Technically it would amount to a tie between the PP and PSOE, but the sum of the left wins in seats (158-185 for PSOE and Sumar, compared to 143-169 for PP and Vox). This result was published today by the Centre for Sociological Research, a public institution under the Presidency Ministry. The survey was conducted between June 8 and June 27, with a sample of 29,201 interviews, the largest used by any pollster in Spain. The fieldwork took place after the PP’s victory in the municipal and regional elections and during the negotiations on municipal councils and regional parliaments.
In the best case scenario, PP and Vox could have 169 seats, seven less than an absolute majority, while the PSOE and Sumar could easily overcome this barrier thanks to the 185 seats they would collect with their best result, although in the worst case, they would be 158. Of the absolute majority, 27 would remain, and would no doubt come to terms with a large number of small formations.
Sumar is superior to Vox
Much of this result is explained by Sumar’s superiority over Vox in most constituencies, according to the CIS. The platform led by Yolanda Díaz, which brings together Unidas Podemos and other formations on the left of the PSOE, could gain more representation than Vox in 22 of the 50 provinces.
The CIS estimates at worst 43 deputies for Sumar, more than the 38 they obtained in November 2019 between Unidas Podemos and Más País, and 16.4% of the vote, with more than 15.3% these formations obtained at the last general election.
With these estimates, the PP would grow significantly from the 89 seats in 2019 and the PSOE could also with some ease improve the 120 deputies it obtained, while Vox would be the big loser in the CIS picture, losing almost half of the 52 seats.
However, the victory of the left is not the only striking thing in this survey, in which the majority of non-national parties are worsening their results. Among Catalan separatists, the ERC could have 1.6% of the vote, less than half of what it had in 2019 (3.6%), dropping from 13 to 5-7 seats. Junts could also fall from 2.19% to the 1.1% now estimated, and from 8 seats to 5-7, while the CUP anti-capitalists could go from 2 seats to a maximum of one and 1% of the vote to 0.6%.
Of the Basque formations, EH Bildu could receive the most votes, with 1.2% of the vote, ahead of the PNV (1%). Abertzale’s left could go from five deputies to a maximum of seven, while the jeltzales could fall from the current six to hold just 3-5.