Lorraine Williamson
A new opinion poll suggests that Spain’s centre-right Partido Popular (PP) would win more seats than the current governing coalition if a general election were held today. The poll, conducted by SocioMétrica for El Español, puts the PP on 147 seats—ten more than it secured in the July 2023 elections.
This would put the party led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo ahead of the combined total of six left-leaning parties—including the Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), Sumar, Podemos, ERC, EH Bildu and BNG—which are projected to win 143 seats in total.
Potential to govern without Vox
Feijóo’s projected total would, for the first time, allow the PP to outperform the left bloc without needing to rely on the far-right Vox party. Vox is also gaining support, rising to 42 seats—nine more than in the previous elections.
By contrast, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s PSOE would drop to 115 seats, losing six MPs. While the party remains the largest on the left, its position is weakened further by the sharp decline of its coalition partner, Sumar. Led by Yolanda Díaz, Sumar is projected to fall from 31 seats to just 9. Podemos remains steady on 4.
Junts, the Catalan nationalist party, would increase its seat count to 8. UPN, the Navarrese regionalist party, holds one seat, which could be crucial in future coalition-building.
Public appetite for early elections
Support for an early election is growing. According to the poll, 72% of Spaniards want a new vote in 2025, including 47% of PSOE voters. Sánchez’s government faces growing pressure over its reliance on pro-independence parties, especially Junts, to pass legislation.
The lack of a stable majority is fuelling public dissatisfaction and complicating governance. Many voters appear unconvinced by the compromises Sánchez has made to maintain power.
Leaders losing favour
The poll also reveals declining public confidence in political leaders across the board. Although Sánchez’s personal approval rating has risen slightly—up to 28.2%—it remains well below the 40% he enjoyed at the start of his term.
Feijóo stands at 26.2%, followed by Yolanda Díaz on 25.3% and Vox leader Santiago Abascal on 21.6%. Podemos’s Ione Belarra polls at 12.2%, while controversial activist Alvise Pérez garners 8.1%.
Feijóo within reach of being the next Spanish Prime Minister
Adding up the numbers, Sánchez’s current governing bloc would only reach 165 seats—well short of the 176 needed for an absolute majority. In contrast, a right-wing alliance between the PP, Vox, and UPN would secure 184 seats, clearing the threshold.
While no election has yet been called, the polling suggests a shift in political momentum. For the first time in this parliament, Feijóo could form a government without needing to rely heavily on far-right support. If current trends hold, the next Spanish prime minister may well come be Feijóo from the PP.
Also read: Far-right sentiments on the rise in Spanish classrooms