A new report from the Pierre-Simon Laplace Institute (IPSL) has attributed the intensity of the recent torrential rains in Valencia to climate change. Researchers are highlighting the role of the Mediterranean which was four degrees warmer than usual.
The catastrophic storm, known as a DANA (Isolated Depression in High Levels), led to over 200 deaths and left thousands losing everything. Experts say climate change, driven by human activity, exacerbated the effects of this Mediterranean storm which was significantly more severe than it otherwise would have been.
“The heavy rainfall in southeastern Spain was significantly amplified by human-induced climate change,” reads the report. It is produced by ClimaMeter, a climate science tool used by IPSL. The research team used satellite data spanning four decades to compare past climate behaviour with current conditions. Their conclusion? The storm was 15% wetter than a typical DANA due to the effects of a warming planet.
Unprecedented conditions and impacts
Carmen Álvarez Castro, a climate researcher at Pablo de Olavide University in Seville, noted that the recent DANA displayed a highly unusual pattern, without precedent in recorded meteorological history. “DANAs are not uncommon in autumn, but this one was substantially intensified by atmospheric conditions linked to global warming,” Álvarez explained. The storm lasted from October 29 to November 1, a four-day event that battered the eastern Spanish coast, prolonged by exceptionally warm air and sea conditions.
Traditionally, DANAs—or “cold drops”—occur in the Mediterranean region when cold air from high altitudes encounters the lingering heat from summer-warmed waters. While this phenomenon is not new, the Mediterranean is now heating much more intensely than it did in previous decades, Álvarez stressed. In this case, the sea temperatures reached nearly 30 degrees Celsius in late October. That record-breaking heat extended the storm’s duration and intensity.
Urgent need to adapt
The global warming effect, IPSL claims, will shorten the return period for such extreme weather events. Consequently, they will happen more frequently than the current climate risk assessments suggest. Local administrations are revising emergency protocols to deal with increasingly volatile conditions. Meanwhile, experts are sounding the alarm: Valencia’s recent deluge is not an outlier, but rather a bellwether of the climate shifts already unfolding.
“Not just theories but extensive analyses”
World Weather Attribution, another scientific body dedicated to rapid analysis of extreme weather, supports ClimaMeter’s findings, suggesting that climate change played a significant role in enhancing this storm’s destructive capabilities. “These aren’t just theories,” Álvarez emphasised. “We’ve conducted extensive analyses to understand these patterns. It’s essential for the public to realise that climate change isn’t something that’ll affect future generations—it’s here, now.”
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