Lorraine Williamson
Spain is bracing for a sharp change in the weather this weekend, with a DANA expected to bring heavy rain, thunderstorms, and the risk of local flooding in parts of the country. The State Meteorological Agency, AEMET, has warned that the Mediterranean coast and the Balearic Islands could experience particularly difficult conditions from Saturday, 17 October.
After several days of unusually warm and settled weather, temperatures are expected to fall across much of Spain as colder air moves over the peninsula. A developing area of low pressure high in the atmosphere could become isolated, creating conditions for heavy and persistent rainfall.
AEMET has warned that the combination of atmospheric instability and moisture arriving from the Mediterranean could produce intense downpours. However, considerable uncertainty remains over the exact position of the weather system and which areas will receive the heaviest rain.
Where in Spain is the heaviest rain expected?
The Mediterranean coastline and Balearic Islands are currently the main areas of concern. Parts of Catalonia, the Valencian Community, Murcia and eastern Andalucía could experience heavy showers, although the precise distribution of rainfall will depend on how the DANA develops.
The Balearic Islands could also see prolonged periods of rain and thunderstorms, with the possibility of substantial accumulations in some locations. Rainfall may extend into inland areas of the peninsula, while a separate weather front is expected to affect northern Spain.
AEMET has emphasised that the forecast remains subject to change. Not every area along the Mediterranean coast will necessarily experience severe conditions, and residents should check local warnings rather than assume the same level of risk applies everywhere.
Sunday and Monday could bring the worst conditions
The unsettled weather is expected to begin on Saturday 17 October, when showers and thunderstorms develop across parts of the peninsula. During the afternoon and evening, rainfall is forecast to become more widespread along the Mediterranean coast and across the Balearic Islands.
Sunday 18 October is expected to bring some of the most significant rainfall, particularly in coastal and nearby inland areas. Heavy showers could persist for several hours, increasing the risk of surface flooding and rapid rises in water levels.
According to the latest AEMET reporting on Thursday, Monday 19 October could also bring particularly adverse conditions. The agency has warned of the possibility of local flooding and sudden rises in streams and normally dry watercourses, although the precise areas at greatest risk have yet to be established.
Temperatures set to fall across Spain
The arrival of the DANA will also bring an end to the unusually warm conditions experienced across much of Spain this week. AEMET expects temperatures to fall generally on Saturday, with a particularly noticeable drop in the northwest.
A further decline is forecast for Sunday, especially across the eastern half of the peninsula. The change will bring temperatures closer to normal October values in many areas, following several days of weather more typical of late summer.
The combination of cooler air, thunderstorms and persistent rain could make travelling more difficult in affected regions, particularly where roads are vulnerable to flooding.
Protección Civil urges caution on roads and in flood-prone areas
Spain’s Civil Protection authorities have issued precautionary advice ahead of the expected rainfall, particularly for people travelling through areas where flooding can develop rapidly.
Drivers are advised to reduce speed during heavy rain, use main roads where possible and avoid crossing flooded roads or underpasses. Even relatively shallow moving water can make a vehicle unstable, while the condition of the road beneath floodwater may be impossible to judge.
People living near rivers, streams and ramblas should remain alert to sudden changes in water levels. In the event of intense rainfall, authorities recommend moving away from low-lying areas and following instructions issued by local emergency services.
AEMET to refine forecasts as weekend approaches
The uncertainty surrounding the position of the DANA means that forecasts and warning levels could change considerably over the next 24 to 48 hours. AEMET is continuing to monitor the developing system and will issue updated information as its likely path becomes clearer.
Residents and visitors, particularly those planning to travel along Spain’s Mediterranean coast or to the Balearic Islands, are advised to consult the latest official forecasts before setting out.
The key concern is not only how much rain falls, but how quickly it arrives. Intense rainfall concentrated over a short period can overwhelm drainage systems and cause dangerous local flooding, even where surrounding areas experience less severe weather.