Lorraine Williamson
Spain has moved to reassure travellers and the wider aviation sector after airlines warned Europe could face serious jet fuel shortages within weeks if the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt supply routes.
The concern is real. Industry figures have warned that, if the situation around the Strait of Hormuz drags on, Europe could start seeing cancelled flights from late May or June because jet fuel stocks are already under pressure. Reuters reported this week that Europe’s aviation sector is heavily exposed because around 75% of its jet fuel imports normally come from the Gulf.
But Spain says its position is stronger than that of many other European countries.
Energy minister Sara Aagesen said on Monday that Spain would actively take part in any future European Union plan to share jet fuel stocks, and would also support joint fuel purchasing if needed. She argued that Spain is relatively well protected because it has eight refineries, diversified supply from the Americas and North Africa, and has already increased refinery output sharply in response to the crisis.
Why Spain is better placed than much of Europe
The key difference is refining capacity.
Unlike many European countries that depend heavily on imported aviation fuel, Spain refines a large share of its own kerosene. Reuters reported last week that Spain produces around 80% of the kerosene it uses domestically, while Aagesen said refinery output has risen by 60% and stocks are now at their highest seasonal level ahead of the summer travel season.
That does not mean Spain is immune. Fuel prices are still exposed to global tensions, and any wider European shortage would affect airline operations, fares and scheduling across the continent. But it does mean Spain is entering the summer in a stronger position than many of its neighbours.
Why airlines are worried
The wider European picture remains uneasy.
Reuters reported that IATA warned flights could start being cancelled from the end of May if the supply crisis worsens. Storage levels in key north-west European hubs are already low, and the last cargoes from the Gulf are either in transit or being replaced at higher cost by barrels from further away, including the United States and Nigeria.
That matters because airlines are not only worried about whether fuel is available. They are also worried about what it costs. KLM has already announced the cancellation of 160 European flights over the coming month because of rising fuel costs, even while saying its own operations are not facing a physical shortage of jet fuel.
What it could mean for Spain
For Spain, the immediate risk is less about empty airport tanks and more about broader European disruption.
If carriers elsewhere in Europe have to rethink schedules, ration fuel or pay much more for supply, the knock-on effect could still hit Spanish routes through higher fares, reduced frequency or changed aircraft allocation. That matters especially heading into one of the busiest parts of the year for Spain’s tourism industry.
It also matters for British travellers, second-home owners and expats who rely heavily on spring and summer flights into Spain. Even if Spain’s domestic supply remains strong, a Europe-wide aviation fuel problem would still be felt at the booking stage.
A more useful Spain angle than panic
The story, then, is not that Spain is about to run out of fuel. It is that Europe may struggle, while Spain is better placed to cope.
That is a more accurate and more useful line for readers. It avoids turning a serious market warning into a panic story, while still making clear that prices and disruption risks are very real if the conflict continues.
For now, Spain is presenting itself as part of the solution rather than part of the problem: ready to join an EU fuel-sharing scheme, able to refine more kerosene at home, and entering summer with stronger stocks than many of its neighbours. Whether that remains enough will depend on how long the conflict lasts — and how quickly Europe can replace the fuel it normally gets from the Gulf.