Lorraine Williamson
Spain’s mood on the world is hardening, but not in the way many might expect. A new 40dB survey for El País and Cadena SER suggests the country is deeply uneasy about the international climate, broadly backs Madrid’s refusal to fall into line behind Washington over Iran, yet still wants to remain anchored in NATO and continue supporting Ukraine.
That matters because this is not a simple left-versus-right story, nor is it just another reaction to Donald Trump. The poll points to something more revealing: a growing appetite in Spain for a foreign policy that is more independent, more cautious about military escalation and more focused on sovereignty and international law.
Trump tops the list of perceived threats
When respondents were asked which leaders pose the greatest danger to world peace, Trump came first on 81%, just ahead of Vladimir Putin on 79.3% and Benjamin Netanyahu on 71.2%. Further back were Mojtaba Khamenei on 62.9%, Kim Jong-un on 62.25% and Xi Jinping on 49.3%.
That ranking is striking in itself, but the more important takeaway for Spain is what sits behind it. The poll reflects a country that sees global instability not as a distant diplomatic drama, but as something with direct consequences for security, prices, democracy and daily life. Nearly 70% of respondents said they felt pessimistic about the future, while around half said they expect the world to become more violent, more authoritarian and more unequal.
Support for Sánchez’s line on Iran
The clearest current-policy signal in the findings is on Iran. According to Cadena SER’s reporting on the same 40dB poll, 57.3% of Spaniards are very or fairly supportive of Spain’s decision not to back the United States and Israel militarily in the conflict. More than 56% also reject continuing the offensive against Iran.
This helps explain why Spain’s position has cut through politically. The public mood, at least in this snapshot, is not strongly interventionist. It is wary of escalation, sceptical of military adventures and more comfortable with diplomacy than with open-ended alignment. That does not make Spain anti-Western. It makes it cautious.
Independent, but not isolationist
That distinction is important. The same poll shows broad support for defending Spain’s economic, territorial and energy sovereignty, as well as backing international law, with each of those positions winning more than 75% support. More than half also support the idea of a European army.
At the same time, Spain has not turned against its traditional alliances. Almost two-thirds of respondents want the country to remain in NATO, and 65.7% support continuing military aid to Ukraine while Russia’s invasion continues. In other words, the public appears to favour a more self-directed European and Spanish line, not a retreat from the wider Western bloc.
That may be the most interesting part of the whole survey. Spain seems increasingly uncomfortable with Trump-style disruption and military brinkmanship, but it is not embracing withdrawal. The message is closer to this: stay in the alliance, defend democracy, support Ukraine, but do not sign a blank cheque for every conflict.
Defence spending still divides the country
Where the consensus breaks down is on military spending. The survey shows Spain is almost evenly split, with 46.3% in favour of increasing defence spending and 45.3% against. Support is strongest on the right, while opposition is more common on the left, though PSOE voters are less firmly opposed than other left-leaning groups.
That divide matters because it reflects a broader tension running through Spanish politics. Many voters accept that the world feels more dangerous. Fewer agree on what should be done about it, how much should be spent, or whether security is best guaranteed through deterrence, diplomacy or a stronger European framework.
A country uneasy about the future
Beyond the headline about Trump, the deeper tone of the poll is anxiety. Around 59% see democratic backsliding in the United States as plausible, while 54% say the same about the European Union. The survey also found that 81% think new large-scale US military operations are likely, almost 80% fear the Middle East conflict could trigger a global economic crisis, and 51% consider a world war possible.
For a country like Spain, where foreign policy does not usually dominate everyday conversation in the same way as housing, jobs or tourism, that is a telling shift. International affairs have moved closer to home. Energy, inflation, migration, defence and democratic stability no longer feel like separate debates. They now overlap.
What this says about Spain now
There is one more finding worth noting. Asked whether they would be willing to take personal risks to defend democracy in Spain, roughly half said yes, while 36% said no. That suggests a public that is worried, but not entirely resigned.
The bigger picture is that Spain’s foreign-policy instinct appears to be moving towards a more independent centre ground. Voters are not clamouring for militarisation, nor are they calling for disengagement. They want distance from reckless escalation, continued support for allies where the case is clear, and a stronger defence of Spain’s own interests and democratic values. In a far more volatile world, that may become the defining line of Spanish politics over the months ahead.