Tomorrow’s Madrid elections (4th May) will mark a significant change of course for most parties in the region. A change of course that will also have a major impact on Spain’s national politics.
For the current Madrid president Isabel Díaz Ayuso (PP), the early elections will be either a glorious victory or a painful historical defeat. If the latter happens, the Partido Popular will have to relinquish control of the Madrid region after 26 years. This would also be an immense disappointment for the national PP leader Pablo Casado, as the increased popularity of his party is largely due to Ayuso’s success in Madrid.
If Ayuso does not achieve an absolute majority and there is a coalition with the far-right party Vox, her policy will make a big swing to the right. As regional president, she will have a good chance of succeeding national party leader Casado if the latter fails to win the national elections again. In the unlikely event Ayuso does not win the election, it will mean an incalculable loss for the conservatives at both national and regional level.
Vox to have power for the first time in Spain?
Meanwhile, Vox is discussing a strategy to support the right-wing sub-government from the sidelines. However, the party prefers to see an active role in the future regional government. With no third coalition party in the picture, party leader Rocío Monasterio is eager to take charge of the Madrid region with Díaz Ayuso. If the PP-Vox coalition becomes a reality, the far-right party will have a place within a government in Spain for the first time in its history.
Center-right is disappearing from the scene according to polls
A center-right voice threatens to disappear completely from the political picture. The latest polls show Ciudadanos, the party led by Edmundo Bal, will not reach the minimum 5% needed to join the regional parliament. The party now seems to have the worst cards and to be played out after the upcoming election round.
The left-wing parties, meanwhile, smell an opportunity to take control of the Madrid region for the first time in 26 years. Unidas Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias even left his position as second deputy prime minister of Spain for this opportunity. He wants at all costs to prevent a right/ultra-right coalition in Madrid. Shortly after his resignation as deputy prime minister, Podemos seemed to rise above the magical 5% in Madrid, but in the latest polls the party slumped again.
Más Madrid has a good chance of becoming the largest left-wing party
PSOE presidential candidate Ángel Gabilondo in turn has formulated a policy with which he hopes to make up for the many defeats of his party in Madrid. How successful that will be is the question; the socialists are also threatened from the left by the increasingly popular party Más Madrid, which split from Podemos a few years ago.
According to the latest polls, Más Madrid is right behind the PSOE. In fact, it is not unlikely the party’s popular leader Mónica García will get the most votes from the left-wing voter next Tuesday.