Conditions improved: Olive oil price drop expected

by Lorraine Williamson
olive oil price

Olive oil is indispensable in the Mediterranean diet. But for many, it has become unaffordable. Olive oil prices have been skyrocketing for more than two years. Since 2021, the price of olive oil in Spain has risen by as much as 200%, due to drought, record temperatures and the energy crisis, among other factors. But there is good news, experts expect a drop in the price of olive oil.

According to the Spanish consumer organisation OCU, you pay an average price of more than €15 for a litre of olive oil from an A-brand. But recent forecasts from the industry suggest that a sharp drop in prices could be coming.


Still, there are reasons to expect a decline. In recent months, rain has fallen in Spain, which has given a boost to olive production.

Experts, including Luis Planas, Spain’s agriculture minister, predict that prices will fall to more acceptable levels, thanks to improved weather conditions and increased crop yields.

Cogesa Expats

Dimitra Aliefs, doctor of economics and expert in the international trade in olive oil and member of the Scientific Association of Olive Encyclopedists, is also optimistic. Her estimates were published in an analysis by the specialist journal Olimerca. Aliefs predicts that global olive oil production could pick up again. This will also allow prices to return to their historical averages.

First trends point to a drop in olive oil prices

For example, according to the aforementioned media, the first trends in the futures markets already point to a drop in the price of olives before January 2025. Lower costs then lead to more common olive oil prices.

How far can the price drop?

Aliefs calculated that production could be around 3.2 million tons of olive oil again. These volumes are comparable to those before the current crisis. The increase in the supply of olive oil will translate into the expected drop in prices. But, according to the expert, there are more factors than the available production that have an impact on pricing.

Also read: After olive oil, will coffee also become unaffordable in Spain?

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