Deborah Cater
A major new study finds that better regional transport links could ease Spain’s housing crisis by shifting demand away from overheated city centres. Using advanced Bayesian network modelling, researchers reveal that location and accessibility are more influential on property prices than amenities or size, especially in Madrid, Barcelona, and Valencia. The findings call for transport investment as a key lever for fairer housing policy.
The study, led by researchers at IE University in Madrid, used statistical tools known as Bayesian networks to analyse more than 180,000 housing listings across Madrid, Barcelona, and Valencia. It offers the clearest evidence to date that location and accessibility, not just size or amenities, are the main forces driving house prices in Spain’s largest urban centres.
Access drives prices
At the heart of the research is the conclusion that proximity to city centres and transport corridors is the most powerful driver of house prices, regardless of city. Whether it’s Madrid’s Paseo de la Castellana, Barcelona’s Diagonal, or Valencia’s Avenida Blasco Ibáñez, the closer a property is to these key routes, the more expensive it is.
The study found that homes within easy reach of metro stations or central districts consistently commanded higher prices, while properties further out saw significantly lower valuations. This implies that improving transport links between city centres and surrounding towns or suburban areas could relieve pressure on housing markets by making it easier for people to live further out without sacrificing convenience.
A tale of three cities
While location matters across the board, each city displays its own distinct housing market logic.
In Madrid, prices are heavily influenced by access to major avenues and amenities. Furthermore, features like lifts and terraces command a premium. Historic buildings in central areas remain especially desirable.
In Barcelona, the market is more focused on property type and condition. A penthouse or newly renovated flat in a sought-after district commands a higher price, even if it is smaller or less amenity-rich.
In Valencia, pricing patterns are simpler and more uniform. Building age and proximity to the city centre are the dominant factors, while lifestyle extras like swimming pools or doormen appear to have a limited effect on price.
What are Bayesian networks?
Bayesian networks are a form of artificial intelligence used to model complex systems. They allow researchers to understand how different variables influence each other in a transparent, interpretable way.
Unlike “black-box” algorithms, Bayesian networks make it possible to trace how each input contributes to an outcome. In this study, the researchers used them to map how structural features (such as floor size and number of rooms), spatial features (like location and accessibility), and amenities (including lifts and parking) interact to influence property prices.
These networks also enabled the researchers to simulate realistic property profiles and predict how changes in specific features, such as distance to the metro, affect price. Most importantly, they support policy recommendations that are both evidence-based and easy for decision-makers to understand.
Investment in regional transport links needed
The findings strongly support the case for greater investment in regional public transport. Expanding commuter rail services, adding metro links, and improving intercity connections could significantly ease the housing burden on central neighbourhoods.
Improved transport infrastructure would help redistribute housing demand to more affordable areas. It would also allow more people to live in smaller cities or outlying districts while maintaining reasonable access to jobs, education, and healthcare in urban centres. In doing so, it would help reduce the price pressure currently felt in Spain’s largest cities.
The study also shows that Bayesian networks can enhance transparency in policymaking. By clearly showing how prices respond to specific variables, the models provide a useful foundation for designing fairer tax assessments, renovation grants, or zoning changes.
Smarter models for smarter cities
As housing affordability remains one of the most urgent issues in Spain, this new research offers a powerful combination of insight and practical guidance. It suggests that policy solutions should look beyond just housing supply and consider how urban mobility shapes where people can afford to live.
The message is clear. To tackle the housing crisis, Spain must invest not just in homes, but in public transport links relative to properties.
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Source: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.09539