Lorraine Williamson
Pedro Sánchez has called an early general election with a new poll showing a substantial advantage for Spain’s right, as PP and Vox together command half of the estimated voter support. The October 40dB barometer for El País and Cadena SER puts Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s PP first on 31.6%, followed by Sánchez’s PSOE on 27.4%. Vox is the only major party gaining significant ground, rising to 18.4%.
The figures provide an uncomfortable starting point for Sánchez after he announced on Monday morning that Spain will hold a general election on 29 November. However, the timing of the survey is important: its 2,000 interviews were conducted between 25 and 28 September, before the government’s housing decrees were defeated in Congress and before the decision to call an early election.
The poll, therefore, offers a snapshot of public opinion immediately before the political upheaval of recent days rather than a measurement of voters’ reaction to it. With almost eight weeks until polling day, there is still considerable scope for the picture to change.
PP leads, but Vox is making the gains
The PP remains comfortably ahead of the PSOE, but its own position has weakened slightly. Feijóo’s party is down 0.8 percentage points compared with the previous month’s 40dB barometer and stands around 1.5 points below the result it achieved at the 2023 general election.
The striking movement is happening further to the right. Vox has gained 0.6 points in a month to reach 18.4%, its highest level since April and substantially above the 12.4% it secured at the 2023 election.
Together, PP and Vox account for 50% of the estimated support in the poll. When SALF is included, the broader right reaches 52%, compared with 35.7% for PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos combined.
That gap gives the right a commanding starting position as Spain enters the campaign, although converting national vote shares into seats is not straightforward under the Spanish electoral system. Results in individual provinces, turnout, and the distribution of votes among smaller parties can all affect the eventual composition of Congress.
PSOE remains second as allies struggle
The PSOE stands at 27.4%, down just 0.2 points from September. That movement is within the poll’s margin of error, but the figure is still 4.3 points below the party’s result at the 2023 general election and represents its second-lowest 40dB reading of 2026.
Sánchez’s bigger difficulty may be what is happening elsewhere on the left. Sumar is estimated at 5.6%, while Podemos stands at 2.7%, leaving both well behind their combined strength at the last general election.
The fragmentation matters because Spain’s electoral system rewards votes differently depending on where they are cast. A divided vote among smaller parties can translate into fewer seats even where the combined percentage appears substantial.
For Sánchez, the campaign challenge is therefore not limited to recovering PSOE voters. The wider left needs to mobilise enough support to prevent the PP and Vox advantage in national polling from translating into a parliamentary majority.
Housing turmoil came after the poll
There is another important caveat to Monday’s numbers. The survey was completed before the events that ultimately led Sánchez to call the election.
The interviews took place shortly after the high-profile eviction case involving 87-year-old Maricarmen in Madrid and during the protest camp in Puerta del Sol. However, respondents were questioned before the government approved its two emergency housing decrees and before PP, Vox, and Junts subsequently combined to defeat them in Congress on Friday.
That parliamentary defeat prompted Sánchez to spend the weekend considering whether his government could continue before announcing the 29 November election on Monday morning.
It means one of the biggest questions of the opening campaign is still unanswered: whether the political turmoil over housing will change voting intentions once it is fully reflected in polling.
Vox enters the campaign in a stronger position
Of the major parties, Vox has the clearest momentum in the 40dB figures. Its rise has come partly at the expense of the PP, meaning growth for Santiago Abascal’s party does not automatically represent equivalent growth for the right as a whole.
The balance within that bloc could nevertheless become important after the election. If the PP finishes first but without enough seats to govern alone, the strength of Vox could determine both whether a right-wing majority is possible and the influence Abascal’s party would have in forming it.
Belén Barreiro, director of 40dB, told Cadena SER on Monday that the advantage enjoyed by the right is clear, but cautioned against treating the result as predetermined. She also pointed to the movement of some PP voters towards Vox and the weakness of the smaller parties to the PSOE’s left as significant features of the current political landscape.
Eight weeks could change the picture
Spain is only at the beginning of the electoral process. The formal campaign does not start until 13 November, with polling day on 29 November, leaving parties several weeks to shape the debate before voters make their decision.
Candidate lists, alliances on the left, campaign performances, and developments in the housing crisis could all alter the current balance. The first polls conducted after Sánchez’s election announcement will be particularly significant, because they will show whether the dramatic events of the past few days have moved public opinion.
For now, the picture is clear but not conclusive. The PP enters the election as the largest party in the latest 40dB poll, Vox has the strongest momentum, and Sánchez begins his attempt to secure another term with the combined left significantly behind.