MADRID – The summers in Spain seem to be getting longer. November even starts with summer temperatures. Consequently, all meteorologists are trying to predict the weather for the coming months as accurately as possible. Is it going to rain? Will it get much colder? What can we expect?
Most weather forecasters agree that November will be warmer and drier than usual. The ‘veroño’ (composition between ‘verano’ and ‘otoño’: summer weather in autumn) does not seem to give way to winter weather for the time being. Let´s begin with the Spanish National Weather Institute Aemet.
Forty days longer summer
As Aemet-spokesman Ruben del Campo predicted three years ago: Summer will last four months instead of three months. That prediction can now be confirmed. “Summer now lasts about 40 days longer than in the 1980s,” Del Campo confirmed on Aemet’s website. In addition, “summer has been pushed forward seven days a decade. That means it will now start a month earlier, around the end of May.” And where the summer previously ended on September 23-24, summer now ends about October 6-7, the meteorologist adds.
For the months of November, December and January, Aemet only have an idea in terms of precipitation. The models do indicate that the chance of rain is greater in the east of the peninsula, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands.
Temperatures will remain above normal for the next three months. This “pattern” has been seen since May. It resulted in the hottest summer and a historically warm October with temperatures 2.1 degrees above normal. In the east of the Peninsula it will be warmer than usual from Catalonia to Valencia, via Murcia and Almería. And, furthermore, the thermometers are also indicating higher temperatures in the Balearic Islands this winter.
In terms of temperature, “the first two weeks will most likely be warmer than normal, following the trend seen in October. However, it will be cool in the northwest in the coming days, with some night frost on the plateau,” Aemet said on the website.
There is logically more uncertainty for the second half of the month, but the third week will probably also be warmer than usual; There is no clear trend for the fourth week, although temperatures are expected to be higher than normal in the southern third and the archipelagos.”
In terms of precipitation, Aemet says it doesn’t look like the first part of November will be particularly rainy. On the contrary, it will probably rain less than usual in almost all of Spain, except in the extreme northwest (Galicia and nearby areas).
There is also uncertainty about rain for the second half of the month, although it looks like the third week will be generally dry, except in the far north.
Bottom line: Most of November is warmer and with less rain than usual.
As explained by ‘Meteored’, the high temperatures result in the low pressure over the Atlantic pushing very warm air towards the European continent, causing us to experience a ‘second summer’ in late October and early November. Temperatures did drop slightly on All Saints’ Day, but in many areas in Europe, they were above 30 degrees.
Francisco Martín, a meteorologist at Meteored also confirms: “The summers mainly gain ground on the spring, and they also steal days from the autumn”.
Weather forecasts from the ‘cabañuelas’
Then there are the meteorologists of all time. The cabañuelas method is a long-term weather forecasting system, which consists of ‘guessing’ what the next year will look like based on what nature says in a given period. Winds, clouds, tides and even animal behaviour and the appearance of rocks are studied.
Alfonso Cuenca also uses this method. His grandfather introduced him to this world and he also received additional training. “I have been able to understand what nature offers us, and through a careful study in August, I began to interpret the weather forecast for the whole year.” He expects temperatures between 10 and 25 degrees and a lot of rain in the first two weeks of November.
He makes that prediction from the province of Jaén from the Cabañuelas de Quesada Interpretation Centre. His predictions have a range of about 250 to 300 kilometres from the observation point in Quesada. In the first week of November, he expects mostly cloudy with general and moderate rain. The temperatures will be approximately between 10 (minimum) and 25 degrees (maximum). Clouds will also dominate the picture in the second week, with widespread rains, according to Cuenca. As far as temperatures are concerned, not many changes.
Jorge Rey expects a lot of rain
Jorge Rey, another young Spaniard (16) from Burgos who predicts the weather using the cabañuelas method and who also correctly predicted the blizzard Filomena, thinks it will rain a lot this winter. On Telecinco, he explained that the coming months could bring abundant rain from November. According to him, this generally applies to the whole of Spain. It would be nice if this young expert is right about the country’s reservoirs averaging 31.79% of their capacity.