Lorraine Williamson
After months of heavy rain, flooded roads, and a winter that felt relentless in parts of Spain, the next seasonal shift may bring a different problem. Forecasters say spring 2026 is likely to be warmer than normal across much of the country, extending a clear pattern of above-average temperatures that has become harder to ignore.
According to AEMET, the probability of a warmer-than-usual spring sits at 50% in the Canary Islands and the southwest of the peninsula, rises to 60% across much of the rest of mainland Spain, and reaches 70% in the Balearic Islands. The agency stressed that long-range forecasts always come with uncertainty, especially in spring, but the balance of probability points clearly towards a mild-to-warm season.
A warmer spring looks more likely than not
The message from AEMET is not that every day will feel hot or that cold snaps are impossible. It is that, taken as a whole, the three months of March, April, and May are more likely than usual to end up above the seasonal norm.
Rubén del Campo, speaking during AEMET’s winter climate review, said Spain’s recent pattern already shows how persistent this trend has become. If the spring forecast proves correct, it would continue a run of unusually warm seasons that is no longer exceptional. AEMET says Spain has now had nine consecutive winters with temperatures above normal, and that the last spring colder than normal was back in 2018.
That matters because it suggests this is not just a one-off warm spell after a wet winter. It is part of a broader temperature shift that is increasingly shaping how the seasons feel in Spain.
But rain is still the big uncertainty
The more complicated part of the forecast is rainfall. AEMET says there is no clear trend for most of Spain, with roughly similar chances of the season ending wetter or drier than average. Only the southwest of the peninsula and the Canary Islands show a slight tilt towards a drier spring. There, the agency puts the probability of a drier-than-normal season at 40%, compared with 25% for a wetter one.
That is an important distinction. A warm spring does not necessarily mean a settled one.
For a country coming out of one of the wettest winters of recent years, that uncertainty matters. It means flooding risk, unstable weather, and local storm episodes cannot simply be written off because temperatures are expected to rise. The winter just gone left many areas saturated, and in some places, damage from prolonged rain has already been felt on roads and infrastructure.
Why this forecast stands out
The backdrop makes the spring outlook more notable than it might normally be. Europa Press says AEMET described the winter as one of the warmest since records began and also one of the wettest winters of the 21st century.
That combination is striking in itself. Spain has not simply had a wet season. It has had a wet season layered over a long-term warming trend.
For readers across the country, that could mean a spring marked by contradiction: warmer promenades and earlier outdoor days in some areas, but also the possibility of continued disruption if rain patterns remain unstable. Coastal zones, the Balearics, and parts of the mainland may feel the warmer signal most strongly.
What about Easter?
This is where the forecasts become much shakier. AEMET says it is still far too early to make meaningful predictions for Semana Santa, which this year runs from 29 March to 5 April. Rubén del Campo said trying to give a reliable Easter forecast now would be little more than “science fiction”.
That is worth stressing because Easter weather stories arrive early every year. At this stage, the broader seasonal trend is useful. A day-by-day Holy Week forecast is not.
A Spanish spring increasingly shaped by heat
The bigger story here is not just whether this spring ends up a degree or two above average. It is that the warm seasons in Spain are becoming less surprising and more structured.
AEMET’s outlook suggests spring 2026 is likely to continue that pattern, even after a winter defined by heavy rain and repeated disruption. The uncertainty over rainfall means the season may still bring unsettled episodes. But on temperature, the direction of travel is much clearer.
For Spain, that means a spring that may feel inviting on the surface, while still carrying some of the instability left behind by winter.