Lorraine Williamson
When President Trump recently suggested that Spain might be expelled from NATO for allegedly underinvesting, much of the commentary centred on the drop from his desired 5 % target to Spain’s current 2 % defence budget. Yet that figure alone paints a misleading picture. Far from fading into irrelevance, Spain is asserting itself as a dependable, technologically agile partner whose influence exceeds its budget share.
Spain packs a punch in quality
Spain has climbed to 17th in the Global Firepower Index 2025 out of 145 nations, a leap over its previous standing. That ranking doesn’t simply reflect numbers of tanks or troops. It incorporates facets such as logistical capacity, technological innovation, deployment readiness and strategic reach. In Europe, Spain now outpaces nations like the Netherlands, Belgium and Austria—even if it still trails heavyweights like France, Germany, the UK and Italy.
Though its active forces number just over 120,000, Spain packs a quality punch. The Air Force fields more than 500 aircraft—spanning multirole fighters to transport planes—while the Navy operates modern frigates, submarines and amphibious vessels. Behind the hardware lies a growing emphasis on cybersecurity, unmanned systems and space-based support, marking a shift toward future-oriented power projection.
Beyond the headline percentage
The Global Firepower metric rewards depth and nuance: a country’s geographic location, innovation, alliance integration and capacity for sustained operations all count. On these fronts, Spain scores well. It routinely contributes to NATO missions and EU deployments. Its logistics networks, Mediterranean access and command experience in expeditionary operations add punch beyond what a simple budget number might suggest.
Take Spain’s investments: earlier this year, the government committed an additional €10.5 billion to defense, aligning the nation with NATO’s 2 % of GDP benchmark by 2025—four years ahead of schedule. That move puts to rest claims of Spain shirking its obligations. It also underscores the strategic choice to prioritise capability growth, not just headline figures.
The politics of arbitrary targets
Trump’s insistence on a 5 % threshold largely ignored the different starting points, economic contexts and defence structures within member states. Spain, though exempted from that higher demand, has defended its record through diplomatic channels. Prime Minister Sánchez has repeatedly affirmed that Spain meets its NATO commitments, while alliance figures echo a complementary view: capability matters as much as cash.
Trump’s recent remarks—calling Spain a “laggard” benefiting from NATO protection without sufficient contribution—resurrected old tensions. But even critics concede that 2 % is a baseline many in the alliance aspire to reach. To expel Spain over that percentage would be to penalise a country meeting the agreed minimum.
Strategic relevance in a volatile era
Spain may not command global military dominance, but it occupies a vital niche. Its geostrategic position, bridging Europe, North Africa and the Atlantic, gives it reach. Its growing prowess in drone warfare, satellite monitoring and cyber-defence strengthens NATO’s southern flank. And, moreover, its consistent contributions to alliance operations show it can carry weight beyond its budget line.
What’s next? Spain must continue aligning further spending with capability outcomes—ensuring every euro enhances readiness, interoperability and resilience. It must also tell its narrative more forcefully: that quality, position and partnership often outshine blunt metrics.
In the debate over “fair share,” Spain’s case is clear—for all its 2 % spending, it remains a steadfast, evolving contributor at the heart of European and transatlantic defence.
Watch for how Spain translates its added funds into new platforms and missions, and whether it further climbs military rankings even without attempting to meet inflated percentage demands.
Source: 20 Minutos