Lorraine Williamson
Spain’s right-wing shift in politics is back in the spotlight after the Partido Popular (PP) signalled it would prioritise governing power over party size — even if that means depending on Vox to secure an absolute majority. The shift, reported by El País, reflects a hardening reality in Spain’s fragmented parliament, where coalition maths can matter more than who tops the seat count.
The message is politically significant because it nudges the PP further away from the centre ground it has often tried to occupy in national campaigns — and because it normalises a governing formula that many moderate conservatives still view as a last resort.
Governing first, numbers second
PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo has argued that what matters is forming a government, not simply maximising the PP’s seat total. The party is prepared to accept a smaller PP group in Congress if Vox’s rise delivers a combined right-wing majority. That position represents a clear recalibration: the PP is now looking at the right-wing bloc as a whole rather than treating Vox as an awkward add-on.
The party’s parliamentary spokesperson, Ester Muñoz, spelt out the logic bluntly. If the PP loses seats but Vox gains enough to make the bloc governable, that outcome is preferable to staying in opposition. The framing is aimed at voters who, in the PP’s view, want a change of government — regardless of the exact seat distribution.
A shift from earlier caution
Not long ago, Feijóo’s public line leaned towards governing alone, without formal partners. Now the language has softened, and the PP leadership has encouraged regional leaders to cooperate with Vox where the arithmetic leaves no alternative.
It is not simply a rhetorical adjustment. It is a sign that the PP is preparing its voters for a more explicit alliance — and testing whether the political cost is lower than it used to be.
Vox’s rise — and Vox’s leverage
Vox’s recent gains in regional politics have strengthened the party’s hand and made the PP’s new approach more realistic. But the relationship remains fraught. In a second report, El País describes Vox responding to the PP’s overtures with snubs and attacks, applying pressure in negotiations and keeping up an aggressive tone even as it benefits from being treated as a potential governing partner.
In other words, Vox is behaving less like a junior partner waiting politely for its invitation, and more like a party determined to extract maximum influence from the moment.
The PP’s internal tension: power vs identity
Inside the PP, there is still unease. Some regional leaders remain wary of being pulled into Vox’s orbit and fear the party could lose moderate voters who may accept conservative economic policy but balk at a harder line on immigration, social issues, or institutional culture wars.
That is the central gamble. The PP can either chase a cleaner centrist image and risk being unable to govern, or embrace bloc politics and accept that it may reshape the party’s brand in the process.
What this could mean for Spain
If the PP and Vox eventually secure an absolute majority in national elections, Spain could see a more clearly right-leaning government, with knock-on effects for policy debates on immigration, public spending, social legislation, and territorial politics.
But the PP’s new strategy also carries a structural risk: the more Vox is treated as essential, the more leverage it gains — and the harder it becomes for the PP to set boundaries once negotiations begin.
Where this is heading
Spain’s political system has been living with fragmentation for years. The next phase may be less about who wins and more about which bloc can hold together. If the right consolidates, Spain’s centre of gravity could shift decisively — but the shape of that shift will depend on whether the PP can manage Vox without being managed by it.