Spain inflation impact on consumers as prices stay high

Spain’s official inflation rate edged up to 2.9% in September, a modest rise of 0.2 points on the previous month. On paper, the increase looks sharp, but economists warn the figures are distorted by the “base effect”. A year ago, energy and fuel prices tumbled, making today’s market appear comparatively more expensive.

This technical quirk hides the reality for households. Core inflation, which strips out volatile items like energy and fresh food, dipped slightly to 2.3%. Yet Spain has now spent almost a year above the eurozone average of around 2.1%. Seasonal spikes in education, transport, and leisure costs at the start of the school year add to the pressure, while wholesale electricity prices keep household bills elevated.

Food bills bite hardest

Grocery shopping remains the clearest sign of inflation’s sting. Since 2019, food prices in Spain have jumped by an average of 34%—outpacing many neighbouring countries. For families on lower incomes, the impact is acute, with essentials like fruit, vegetables, and dairy swallowing a larger share of monthly budgets. Many shoppers now trade branded goods for supermarket labels or cut back on treats simply to stay within budget.

Forecasts hint at relief—but risks remain

Economists at the Funcas think tank expect headline inflation to ease to around 2.5% by the end of the year as last autumn’s energy price slump drops out of the comparison. But underlying risks persist. Global conflicts, extreme weather, and disrupted supply chains continue to push up costs for unprocessed food and services. Poor harvests caused by drought or flooding could send fresh produce prices soaring again.

Tourism drives up inflation

Households still feel the squeeze

Even with a potential year-end slowdown, Spanish consumers are unlikely to feel immediate relief. Electricity bills remain stubborn, transport costs are edging up, and supermarket baskets show little sign of becoming cheaper. For many families, especially those on modest wages, the headline numbers offer cold comfort when daily life—from heating a home to buying basic groceries—still costs more each month.

Source: El País