Lorraine Williamson
Winter has already settled across Spain, yet meteorologists say the season unfolding now marks another step in the country’s long, slow shift towards milder cold months. The latest forecasts for winter 2025–26 suggest a pattern that has been building for years: less severe cold, shorter icy spells, and more uneven rainfall across the peninsula.
Forecast models for the current winter indicate temperatures will sit around 0.5°C to 2°C above what used to be typical for December, January, and February. The rise may appear modest, but its impact is tangible. Inland cities that once braced for regular frost are already experiencing noticeably milder mornings, while Mediterranean provinces feel even more temperate than usual.
Rainfall shifts the balance rather than the totals
While total rainfall this winter is expected to remain close to average, the distribution is changing. The north and northwest are forecast to face wetter-than-normal conditions, continuing a trend that dominated the autumn. In contrast, the south and eastern Mediterranean are likely to remain on the drier side, a familiar pattern that heightens concerns about water reserves.
Snow seasons grow shorter
Spain’s mountain regions still retain the essence of winter more reliably than the lowlands, yet even they are feeling the shift. For winter 2025–26, snowfall is expected — but with shorter cold spells and reduced accumulation. The Pyrenees and Sierra Nevada now rely more heavily on artificial snow at the start of the season, and warm surges continue to interrupt natural snow cycles.
Climate change drives a long-term transformation
Spain has recorded a succession of mild winters, and 2025–26 is already reinforcing that trajectory. Climate scientists link this to the steady warming of both the Mediterranean basin and the European continent as a whole. The result is a winter season that behaves less like the one many Spaniards grew up with: cold snaps still occur, but warm anomalies dominate the pattern.
A milder winter with real-world consequences
A milder winter affects everyday life in subtle but far-reaching ways. Lower heating use will likely reduce household energy bills, particularly inland. Agriculture, however, faces challenges: early budding, pest survival, and disrupted dormancy cycles can all threaten crops. Tourism feels the contrast too — city and rural breaks thrive in pleasant weather, while ski destinations fight for consistent snow cover.
Forecasts guide the trend, not the specifics
Meteorologists caution that long-range forecasts describe tendencies, not daily detail. Sharp cold outbreaks remain possible through January and February, particularly in the central plateau and higher sierras. But the broader message is clear: the winter now under way is another chapter in Spain’s move towards a warmer seasonal climate.
What this winter signals for the years ahead
As Spain navigates the months ahead, the implications will be watched closely — from water management to agricultural adaptation and the viability of mountain tourism. Winter 2025–26 may feel gentle, but it reflects a deeper shift shaping the country’s environmental and economic future.
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