SEVILLE – According to the latest elections poll by the Andalucian CIS, the Popular Party (PP) is close to an absolute majority with up to 49 seats. That means that the right-wing conservative party led by current regional president Juanma Moreno could rule alone.
The PP would win between 47 and 49 seats, six seats away from the absolute majority.
In early Andalucian elections on 19 June. The far-right Vox party would rise to between 21 and 23 deputies. The workers’ party PSOE-A would remain at 32 deputies, Por Andalucía (Podemos-IU) at 5 and Adelante Andalucía at 1 seat.
According to the Andalucian Study Centre barometer, held in May on the occasion of the elections, Ciudadanos would have one to two delegates (now 21). Therefore, this prevents the party from forming a parliamentary group.
Double PP and Vox results
If this prediction were fulfilled, PP and Vox would practically double the results they achieved in the 2018 regional elections. This would result in 26 and 11 deputies respectively.
Juanma Moreno could only rule with support from Vox
People’s Party leader Juanma Moreno, who currently rules in coalition with Ciudadanos, could try to rule only with outside support in parliament from the Santiago Abascal formation of Vox, as Isabel Díaz Ayuso is currently doing in Madrid. This then happens instead of including Vox in the coalition, as the PP has done in Castilla y León.
No chance for the left in the Andalucian elections
At best, the Left would get 38 deputies. However, this is far from the absolute majority of 55 deputies, and would have no chance of forming a government.
Juan Espadas’ PSOE-Andalucía would achieve a result similar to that of its predecessor, Susana Díaz, in the 2018 elections, with one less deputy (32).
Fragmentation on the left
However, the collapse on the left is due to the shattering of Adelante Andalucía. This party joined those of Teresa Rodríguez, IU, and Unidas Podemos four years ago, winning 17 delegates. Now the sum of the coalitions of Adelante Andalucía and Por Andalucía (which includes IU, Podemos, Más País and three other regional formations) remains with only 6 seats.
Related article: Andalucian president announces snap elections
