MADRID – The latest Metroscopia poll shows that the sum of the seats of the Partido Popular (PP) and Vox would easily exceed 176 seats. That means an absolute majority for the right and extreme right if they would pact together in Spain.
Earlier polls also gave an absolute majority for PP and Vox. For the study published Friday, Metroscopia conducted 1,750 interviews between December 12 and 15. That questioning took place amid the institutional tension in parliament over socialist Prime Minister Sánchez’s reform of the Penal Code. With this, the government not only wants to abolish the crime of sedition but also change the punishment for embezzlement.
The government is also proposing changes to the laws governing the General Council for the Judiciary (CGPJ) and the Constitutional Court. After approval in the chamber, the Constitutional Court will resume its extraordinary plenary session on Monday to decide whether or not to suspend consideration of the said reform.
The block on right is bigger than the block on left
According to Metroscopia’s poll, the People’s Party PP would gain 134 seats (31.1% of the vote), while Vox would remain the third most-voted force with 57 deputies (16.8%). Therefore, the sum of both results would give a possible coalition or pact between the two parties 191 seats in the chamber. This confirms that the block on the right is larger than on the left. This trend started with the arrival of Alberto Núñez Feijóo to national politics as the leader of the PP.
The left punished for its fragmentation
The PP, the leading political force, would win the general election with a six-point lead over the PSOE, which would see its support wane by taking 96 seats (24.8%) in the House of Commons. The PP would now get 45 deputies more than three and a half years ago. The Socialists would lose 24 deputies compared to the elections on November 10, 2019.
According to Metroscopia, the split between the three parties to the left of the PSOE – Unidas Podemos, Sumas and Más País – penalises the left bloc when it comes to winning seats in many of the constituencies. Unidas Podemos would gain 9.4% of the vote (21 seats).
Sumar, the platform of Yolanda Díaz. the president of Madrid would win 2.4% of the vote and a single seat if the elections were held today. Más País, the formation led by Íñigo Errejón, would receive one to two seats with 1.8% of the vote.
Revaluation of pensions good for older voters
According to the research firm, the support of the elderly for the left-wing parties after the revaluation of pensions temporarily offsets the negative effect of controversial decisions taken by the coalition in recent weeks. These included the abolition of sedition as an offence or the reduction of penalties for non-profit embezzlement. Metroscopia indicates that both reforms have not been well received by a large part of the left-wing electorate.
Switching voters
Another trend that is maintained is the transfer of votes from the PSOE to the PP. At the moment, the percentage of socialist voters who indicate they want to vote for right-wing parties is around 8%. That amounts to about half a million votes. This spillover is stronger in people under 65 years of age. A poll by Hamalgama Métrica was published last Monday. Based on data from November, it also awarded an absolute majority to PP and Vox (184 deputies).
